How the US Can Avoid an Israeli Strike on Iran

There has been a lot of jawboning by US military and Administration officials, both in public and, presumably, in private talks with Israeli leaders, to dissuade them from launching a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. In fact, there is probably only one approach that the US can take to avoid an Israeli attack, and that is to credibly assure the Israelis that the Americans will do the job before it's too late.

There have been several good articles, including one in today's NY Times, outlining the enormous challenges to Israel in accomplishing a reasonably successful raid, and many more articles have emphasized the variously described unpleasant consequences of even successful Israeli military action. True enough, but unless someone has been able to convince the Israelis that they can live with a nuclear armed Iran, then these are the essential pieces of the equation:

1. Israel and the US agree that Iran is aggressively pursuing the development of nuclear weaponry.

2. Israel believes that some time well before the end of this year Iran will have entered what Defense Minster Barak refers to as the "zone of immunity," where it will have dispersed, hidden and buried its nuclear facilites to the point where Israel will no longer be able (even if all goes well) to set the program back significantly.

3. The US faces a similar zone of immunity problem, but due to its greatly superior capabilities, that moment will come months later than for Israel.

4. Sanctions against Iran are finally inflicting pain, but few analysts expect that they will result in either a change in Ayatollah Khamanei's determination to become a nuclear power, or an overthrow of the current regime, during the current year (or more particularly, before Iran enters the zone of immunity).

5. Finally, for Israel the prospect of the current Iranian regime possessing nuclear weapons capability is unacceptable, which for Israel means that it will do whatever is in its power to prevent it, including a military strike.

So what is Israel to do? And what arguments are available to its close and powerful friend, the United States, to prevent or at least delay such action? Unless Ayatollah Khamanei does actually (pardon the exprssion) see the light and strike a credible deal very soon, then the only truly relevant message the US can deliver is this: "We are equally committed to preventing Iran from reaching its nuclear objective; we do have the luxury of waiting longer for sanctions to work; but we will use the military option before the window closes on our zone of immunity with Iran."

How can such an assurance be conveyed? Presumably, nothing short of a direct, categorical statement from President Obama to Prime Minister Netanyahu when they meet in Washington in early March.